My picks in August 2009:
AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots (11-5): The Pats are loaded for '09. Getting Tom Brady back will help them, but they are also so loaded on offense. You've got Moss, Welker, Watson, a healthy Maroney, and they added Joey Galloway. They added some depth in the secondary (Springs, Bodden and Darius Butler),but their pass rush remains a concern. The bottom line is that they have Brady and Belichick and that's all you need. The Pats roll to the division title in '09.
2) Miami Dolphins (9-7): Last year's surprise will be a good in 2009, but they won't have enough to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are well coached, and have a good defense, but I think the Wildcat will only get them so far. Pennington is a solid QB, but their schedule is very tough and they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They will play hard every week, but I think they miss out on the playoffs.
3) New York Jets (8-8): New coach Rex Ryan created some bulletin board material for the rest of the AFC East this offseason, but he might have trouble backing it up. I see the Jets getting off to a tough start (Their first four games are brutal), as rookie QB Mark Sanchez needs time to develop. I think their defense will need some time in the beginning to adjust to Ryan's attacking scheme. I think the Jets are one of those teams that will be like 5-8 and then win their last three games to finish 8-8 and probably spoil someone's season.
4) Buffalo Bills (5-11): I was thinking about picking Buffalo to make the playoffs, but I decided against it. I just can't trust their offensive line and Trent Edwards. The addition of Terrell Owens will help, but I see the Bills struggling in a tough division. I'm not a fan of Dick Jauron, and I think this is the end of the road for him.
1) New England Patriots (11-5): The Pats are loaded for '09. Getting Tom Brady back will help them, but they are also so loaded on offense. You've got Moss, Welker, Watson, a healthy Maroney, and they added Joey Galloway. They added some depth in the secondary (Springs, Bodden and Darius Butler),but their pass rush remains a concern. The bottom line is that they have Brady and Belichick and that's all you need. The Pats roll to the division title in '09.
2) Miami Dolphins (9-7): Last year's surprise will be a good in 2009, but they won't have enough to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are well coached, and have a good defense, but I think the Wildcat will only get them so far. Pennington is a solid QB, but their schedule is very tough and they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They will play hard every week, but I think they miss out on the playoffs.
3) New York Jets (8-8): New coach Rex Ryan created some bulletin board material for the rest of the AFC East this offseason, but he might have trouble backing it up. I see the Jets getting off to a tough start (Their first four games are brutal), as rookie QB Mark Sanchez needs time to develop. I think their defense will need some time in the beginning to adjust to Ryan's attacking scheme. I think the Jets are one of those teams that will be like 5-8 and then win their last three games to finish 8-8 and probably spoil someone's season.
4) Buffalo Bills (5-11): I was thinking about picking Buffalo to make the playoffs, but I decided against it. I just can't trust their offensive line and Trent Edwards. The addition of Terrell Owens will help, but I see the Bills struggling in a tough division. I'm not a fan of Dick Jauron, and I think this is the end of the road for him.
-The Pats won the division by finished 10-6, the Jets finished second and earned a wild card at 9-7, the Dolphins finished third with a record of 7-9, and the Bills finished last with a record of 6-10.
-I nailed the Pats winning the division, and almost had the exact record.
-I figured correctly that the Dolphins wouldn't make a return trip to the playoffs.
-I had the Jets at 8-8, so I was close, but I didn't expect the Jets to make the playoffs this season.
-I nailed the Bills pretty good. They finished last at 6-10, and I had them at 5-11.
-Overall, I feel that I really did a nice job predicting this division. It was a surprise that the Jets made the playoffs, but if Indy didn't mail in the game in Week 16, then the Jets would have finished 8-8 and out of the playoff race.
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): The Steelers will have some bumps in the road in defense of their title, but they have a very good coach, a great QB, and a fantastic defense. In the NFL those elements provide winning seasons. The Steelers will reload and win the division. It may be tougher than people expect, but they will get it done.
2) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): My "Super-Ultra Sleeper" for the 2009 season: The Bengals. I know that sounds pretty ridiculous, and I know I picked them last year to win the division and they finished 4-11-1, but I have a gut feeling the Bengals will surprise people this year. You get a healthy Carson Palmer back, and people forget about how good Palmer is. They added some decent pieces to the defense (Tank Johnson, Roy Williams, Rey Maualuga, Michael Johnson) and their defense was actually underrated last year. They added Coles to Chad Johnson and Chris Henry, and they drafted Andre Smith. This team won 11 games in 2005, they were 8-5 with three games to go in 2006, their defense and off the field incidents killed them in 2007, and Carson Palmer was hurt basically all of 2008. I just have a feeling about the Bengals this year. I don't know how to explain, but I think they are a sleeper and make the playoffs as a wild card. If they don't, then I will definitely never pick them ever again.
3) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): I think the Ravens take a step back in 2009. They won 11 games last year, and they didn't really beat anyone. Their only real impressive win was at Dallas in Week 16. Then they got a perfect matchup in round 1 against the Dolphins, and they beat the Titans in round 2 because Tennessee shot themselves in the foot all game long. I like Joe Flacco, but I don't love him. I still don't think he has a lot of weapons around him, and that includes getting Derrick Mason back. They are getting older on defense, and they must adjust to the loss of Rex Ryan and Bart Scott.
4) Cleveland Browns (3-13): When Eric Mangini was with the Jets, I never watched a game thinking that Mangini is such a shrewd coach. I think he is actually overrated. I don't like the Browns QB situation. This is a team in transistion. They may be better then what I predict, but I don't think the Browns are going to be very good.
2) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): My "Super-Ultra Sleeper" for the 2009 season: The Bengals. I know that sounds pretty ridiculous, and I know I picked them last year to win the division and they finished 4-11-1, but I have a gut feeling the Bengals will surprise people this year. You get a healthy Carson Palmer back, and people forget about how good Palmer is. They added some decent pieces to the defense (Tank Johnson, Roy Williams, Rey Maualuga, Michael Johnson) and their defense was actually underrated last year. They added Coles to Chad Johnson and Chris Henry, and they drafted Andre Smith. This team won 11 games in 2005, they were 8-5 with three games to go in 2006, their defense and off the field incidents killed them in 2007, and Carson Palmer was hurt basically all of 2008. I just have a feeling about the Bengals this year. I don't know how to explain, but I think they are a sleeper and make the playoffs as a wild card. If they don't, then I will definitely never pick them ever again.
3) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): I think the Ravens take a step back in 2009. They won 11 games last year, and they didn't really beat anyone. Their only real impressive win was at Dallas in Week 16. Then they got a perfect matchup in round 1 against the Dolphins, and they beat the Titans in round 2 because Tennessee shot themselves in the foot all game long. I like Joe Flacco, but I don't love him. I still don't think he has a lot of weapons around him, and that includes getting Derrick Mason back. They are getting older on defense, and they must adjust to the loss of Rex Ryan and Bart Scott.
4) Cleveland Browns (3-13): When Eric Mangini was with the Jets, I never watched a game thinking that Mangini is such a shrewd coach. I think he is actually overrated. I don't like the Browns QB situation. This is a team in transistion. They may be better then what I predict, but I don't think the Browns are going to be very good.
-The Bengals won the division with a record of 10-6, the Ravens finished second and earned a wild card berth with a 9-7 record, the Steelers finished third with a 9-7 record, and the Browns finished last at 5-11.
-I would like to pat myself on the back for nailing my 2010 sleeper: The Cincy Bengals. I just had a gut feeling about them, and I was right. I didn't think they were going to win the division, but they made the playoffs, so my sleeper pick was dead on.
-I had the Ravens at 8-8, so I wasn't far off. I didn't think the Ravens were going to make the playoffs, and for awhile it didn't look like they were going to make it. Collapses by Denver and Jacksonville got the Ravens in.
-I had the Steelers winning the division, but they fell apart towards the end of the season and finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. That was a stunner that I didn't see coming.
-I nailed the Browns finishing last and they actually won a few more games then I thought they would.
-My Bengals sleeper pick will go down as one of my best predictions up to date.
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